While the market remains positive overall, the price of urea peaked in October in most areas. Producers achieved higher netbacks from government tenders east of Suez and tried to exploit the tighter market in southeast Asia, but elsewhere there was increased reluctance to pay higher prices. Temporary oversupply in Brazil pushed prices down. Buyers saw this as an opportunity to cover most of the requirement for safrinha.

Lower than expected prices in the 100,000t tender held in Pakistan on 22 October set the scene for a confusing end of month in the urea market. The winning offer was equivalent to $328- 330/t fob Middle East and this put a large hole in the confidence many felt concerning prices. The paper market dropped $10-15/t in reaction and buyers elsewhere began to reassess. The outlook clouded for November, as the Pakistan sale shaved $10/t off Middle East prices at the high end and saw Egyptian producers accept $335/t fob for November in midweek to stabilize their prices.

DAP and MAP prices remained stable/slightly soft and liquidity was largely confined to India in the last week of October as the industry gathered for two major conferences. Indian buyers secured more than 180,000t of DAP for November arrival in an unchanged $426-428/t cfr ex-China and Saudi Arabia. Prices were mostly stable. China DAP prices edged down fractionally basis on firmer freight to $410-412/t fob but cfr values in India were steady. Brazil likewise was marginally weaker at $455/t cfr flat basis actual business. Total recorded trades were just over 262,000t DAP/MAP plus 50,000t Saudi product to Bangladesh under government-to-government agreement. In India the high phosphoric acid price had driven more DAP purchases and the November line up was unseasonably high at 500,000t. Two reported deals were completed in Pakistan. Prices were reported around $429-430/t cfr, marginally softer, but the deals were yet to be confirmed. Nepal also issued a purchase tender for 20,000t DAP. West of Suez, Brazilian prices were slightly softer basis one actual spot deal at $455/t cfr ex-Mosaic. High freight took the Tampa DAP/MAP range down to $427/t fob. US DAP/MAP barges fell around $3/t late October but this was partly explained by river logistics issues leading to rushed sales. The lack of l/cs in the Ethiopian tender for 625,000t could be a concern the longer it goes on. But it was highly unlikely that the tender would be cancelled.

Recent tender results have given some clarity on the new levels for MOP in southeast Asia. Although Malaysia still lags Indonesia prices, and Vietnam lags Thailand, standard and granular MOP prices have risen to reflect levels closer to the international market. Northwest Europe and Brazil granular MOP prices have risen recently, but have recently been steady. Suppliers expect prices to rise again before the end of the year, as $370/t cfr is the target for Brazil for some producers, and there remains some upside to the European market prices as a result of tight demand.

The list of suppliers with little or no MOP to sell on spot market orders grows longer. BPC is now fully committed until

December, and another supplier said it was fully committed on standard MOP until June 2019. Canpotex, Uralkali, SQM and K+S are all tight on product, either regionally or globally. High demand continues to surprise the market, and some suppliers were unable to capitalize on rising prices in some regions because of supply constraints. But those with availability can lift prices easily in parts of southeast Asia, and Brazil and Europe may well see further increases before the end of the year.