FERTILIZER PRICE COMMENTS FOR APRIL 2021

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NITROGEN

Algeria
AOA was reported to have cargoes to sell for second half April and indicated $380/t fob for fixed price sales. Traders loaded cargoes for Italy and the UK in first half April. Koch loaded 25-30,000t of granular urea from AOA for Canada in mid April. AOA offered to sell end-April and May cargoes on a formula basis, equivalent to around $360/t fob netback. Traders were offered granular urea in Mexico in the third week at prices which reflected below $340/t fob Arzew, but without success. Potential netbacks from Brazil fell almost daily, dropping into the $320s/t fob by press time. AOA was reported to have sold one cargo in the third week for May loading on a formula basis. Eurochem loaded 25,000t from AOA for shipment to Italy under a purchase made several weeks ago. Most of the urea were shipped to Latin America, although traders were trying to find vessels that could load in time to reach Nola by mid May. Indagro fixed a vessel to load 40,000t of granular urea prompt in Arzew for Nola. Nitron loaded 35,000t of AOA urea for Uruguay in May and Swiss Singapore was in the market for 35,000t for west coast Mexico. One of the cargoes was purchased at a fixed price below $330/t fob, the others were to be priced under a formula..

Egypt
Abu Qir held a tender on 1 April to sell 10,000t of granular urea and 25,000t of prilled urea for second half April shipment.
Bids were rumoured at $365-370/t fob for granular urea, but there was no confirmation of this. Prices for Egyptian urea were too high to be workable in most markets at present and needed to fall substantially if producers were to start selling for May. Abu Qir scrapped its 1 April tenders to sell prilled and granular urea; decided to sell through direct negotiation instead. It was reported to have offered granular urea at $370/t fob but was unable to find a buyer at that level. Bids for granular urea were below $360/t fob. Offers for May were in the $350s/t fob on the paper market. Egyptian producers were unsold for May, apart from 1-2 small parcels sold at $395-400/t fob several weeks ago and needed to find a workable price quickly. Bids for granular urea fell sharply in the third week, down to $340/t fob or below. Producer offers were reported at $340-350/t fob, but no sales were confirmed. A trader was bidding to cover 10,000t sold in Turkey, but there was little other inquiry for European markets or elsewhere. Fertiglobe was checking freight for 40,000t to load for Argentina in May. Limited options may oblige Egyptian producers to look to India for sales during May. The market has sprung into life and the first export sales for nearly two months were reported In the fourth week. The sales were initially to cover short positions but appeared to have extended beyond that. We estimated that over 150,000t of urea have been purchased from Egypt. Initial sales of granular urea were at $330-333/t fob, but moved up to $340-344/t fob in midweek and producers were now aiming for $350/t fob for the remaining tonnage. Sales reported by producers were as follows.
„.Mopco sold 2 x 5,000t of granular urea for very end-April shipment at $340/t and $345/t fob Damietta
„.Fertiglobe sold granular urea to markets in southern Europe for end-April and May shipment from Damietta at prices in the mid/high-$360s/t cfr. Depending on vessel size, these sales should net in the low-$340s/t fob Damietta
„.Mopco subsequently sold 20,000t of granular urea to two traders at $340/t fob for May shipment, expected to go to Europe
„.Helwan sold 25,000t to traders at $344/t fob for May shipment
„.Kima sold 50,000t for May shipment at an undisclosed Price
In the fourth week, Abu Qir sold 15,000t of granular urea to a trader at $348/t fob for May shipment. In the last week of April, Alexfert sold 6,000t of granular urea for May shipment at $350/t fob. The cargo moved to Europe. Producers were asking $350-352/t fob for granular urea for May. Most had an order book for May and were comfortable. We estimated that 75-80,000t remained to be sold for May shipment. Two 45,000-50,000t cargoes of urea were expected to be available from Egypt for the Indian tender, but the level of cfr prices determined whether India was a viable option for Egyptian tonnage in May-June, given high freight rates.

Ethiopia
A trader loaded 45,000t of granular urea in China in late April covering an award in EABC’s 1 September tender. Fertiglobe loaded 2 x 45,000t of granular urea in Ruwais in May, completing its award in the same tender. Two or three cargoes were loaded from Saudi Arabia and China to complete shipments under EABC’s tender.

Mali
CMDT made awards in the second week in its 26 February tender to buy 35,000t of prilled urea. The awards, reported at the equivalent of $433/t cfr, were split between four local companies, Gnoumani, DPA, Afrique Auto and Sangoye.

Nigeria
Indorama loaded the m/v Zhoushan Island with 40,000t of granular urea under a contract sale to Fitco for Sao Francisco do Sul, Brazil.
Dangote trial production
Dangote confirmed late late March that trial production had begun at its No 1 unit at Lekki, with commercial production to start once product quality has reached full specification. Sales would be made on a spot basis to begin with. Draft at Lekki was 8.5m which limited loading to vessels of around 15,000t, although there were plans to add deepwater berths with 14.5m draft.
Start up of the 1.3mn t/yr granular urea plant should coincide with peak season demand in Nigeria and much of the initial output would be expected to be sold inside the country. Dangote has extensive business interests in Nigeria and is particularly strong in the northern half of the country, which is the main agricultural area. Progress on the second 1.3mn t/tr urea plant at Lekki was running some 2-3 months behind the first unit. Indorama was reported to have sold a spot cargo to a trader for May export from Onne.

West Africa
There was continued inquiry for prilled urea for April shipment to West Africa to meet prompt demand. Yara was reported in the market for 18,000t to load in the Baltic and traders were also discussing cargoes with Russian producers. Demand for another 40-50,000t of urea existed on top of the 50-60,000t booked last week for April, with shipments likely to extend into May. Price indications were $400-410/t cfr.

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PHOSPHATE

East Africa
There was no import demand because of the ongoing rain season, which has kept DAP prices unchanged..

Egypt
Egyptian DAP price indications remained stable at around $5/t below Moroccan levels.
Phosphate shipments delayed despite Suez opening
The backlog at both ends of the Suez Canal kept affecting phosphate shipments, despite the waterway reopening. A container ship had run aground in the waterway connecting the Mediterranean with the Red Sea, and it took until 29 March to dislodge the ship and for traffic to resume. Vessel trackers showed hundreds of ships waiting at both ends of the Canal. The Suez Canal is one of the main arteries of the phosphates market, particularly for cargoes from north Africa to the Indian subcontinent. Argus line-up data showed that several vessels were affected by the backlog and waiting at both ends of the Suez Canal:
„.Houyoshi Park, carrying 19,000t of phosphoric acid from Morocco to India
„.Unity, transporting 20,000t of MAP and 10,000t of DAP from Jordan to Brazil
„.Star Nike, carrying 61,000t of NPS from Morocco for Ethiopia
The vessel Chemroad Journey, transporting 30,000t of phosphoric acid from Morocco to India, passed the Suez Canal in and crossed the Red Sea. Further shipments from Morocco, like the vessel FJM Glory carrying 50,000t of DAP for India and the MG Neptune with 76,000t of NPS, likely for Ethiopia, were in transit to Port Said and slightly delayed by the persisting backlog. But there was no confirmation. NCIC continued to load cargoes under its previous sales, according to market participants, with next loading cargoes on offer for June. A trading firm was in negotiations on the sell-side for a DAP cargo to India, scheduled to load in June. Netbacks reflected around the mid/high-$530s/t fob Egypt from latest business in India. NCIC was sold out of DAP through to August-September, according to market participants.

Morocco
OCP has no new DAP sales to report in the first week. Market participants continued to report a lack of availability out of Jorf with DAP levels broadly indicated at around $580/t fob.
Morocco’s OCP offsets Jorf Lasfar port delays in March
Moroccan fertilizer loadings from the port of Jorf Lasfar surpassed 1mn t in March, Argus line-up data showed, making up for delays from several port closures in February.
OCP had no new sales to report in the second week. The producer was seeking to achieve $600/t fob for DAP sales into Europe, according to market participants, but there was no sign of business concluded at this level. DAP levels in Ghent reflected around $570/t fob Jorf, depending on vessel size. No new business emerged from Morocco in the third week. Market participants reported OCP DAP offers at $595-600/t fob. But there were realistically no destination markets willing to accept these levels. MAP offers were reported at around $590/t fob equivalent. OCP reported no new sales in the fourth week. The producer was reportedly looking to hold DAP offers above $590/t fob for shipment to Europe.
Moroccan 2Q DAP sales to India delayed as seasons shift
Moroccan fertilizer producer OCP is yet to line up DAP shipments to south Asia — a key destination market in the second quarter — despite a seasonal slowdown of shipments to Ethiopia and Europe. OCP sold close to 100,000t of MAP to Brazilian buyers, loading throughout May and likely into June. The prices net back to around $585-600/t fob. OCP has also lined up two 50,000t MAP cargoes for Canada loading in May and June. In terms of DAP, OCP reportedly concluded its first sale for India in several weeks at the equivalent of around $530/t fob. But there was no confirmation from the supplier. European DAP prices of $575-580/t fob set the high-end in the last week, with trading firms reporting offers at up to $600/t fob. The producer was also in negotiations for shipping MAP/DAP to Argentina for June-loading, but no sale was concluded.

South Africa
Production was still ramping up after Foskor’s recent outage at its Richards Bay MAP plant. The producer was gradually increasing output to the usual production level of 1,400 t/d. Foskor loaded a MAP vessel for the western Cape area. Netbacks from domestic sales were at around $600/t fob. Ma’aden sold 7,000t of DAP at $635/t cfr, with 25,000t of MAP on a formula basis, loading in May. Argus assessed MAP at $605-625/t cfr South Africa, with MAP at a notional premium to DAP of up to $20/t..

Tunisia
GCT was targeting DAP at around $575-580/t fob for Mediterranean markets.

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