Latest FOB International Fertilizer Prices – updated at November 2021

Fertilizer Price Trends
INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICES FOR SELECTED FERTILIZERS argusmedia
PUBLICATION FERTILIZER DEC-20 JAN-21 FEB-21 MAR-21 APR-21 MAY-21 JUN-21 JUL-21 AUG-21 SEP-21 OCT-21 NOV-21 1 MONTH 1 YEAR
Argus Nitrogen Urea (prilled bulk fob Black Sea) 239 282 336 345 325 333 399 440 414 454 709 840

19%

251%

Argus Nitrogen Urea (granular bulk fob Middle East) [all netbacks] 254 307 344 358 345 351 413 441 415 490 720 868

21%

242%

Argus Nitrogen Urea (granular bulk fob Nigeria) 268 316 371 383 353 375 438 470 440 503 756 827

9%

209%

Argus Ammonia Ammonium sulphate (bulk fob Black Sea) 123 128 135 158 162 157 172 198 205 226 324 416

28%

239%

Argus Ammonia Ammonia (fob North Africa) 228 267 346 441 471 458 507 568 591 611 689 771

12%

238%

Argus Phosphates DAP (bulk fob Morocco) 392 438 531 561 571 566 604 688 701 657 733 853

17%

118%

Argus Phosphates DAP (bulk fob Russia Baltic/Black Sea) 361 410 534 551 553 555 630 653 619 607 721 820

14%

127%

Argus Phosphates DAP (bulk fob Saudi Arabia) [KSA] 361 426 459 517 541 558 565 592 630 647 675 810

20%

124%

Argus Phosphates MAP (bulk fob Morocco) 382 443 570 608 595 611 701 740 715 693 763 821

8%

115%

Argus Phosphates TSP (bulk fob Morocco) 269 318 430 473 500 506 586 631 638 599 638 678

6%

152%

Argus Phosphates Phosphate rock (69% BPL bulk fob north Africa) 83 83 83 93 93 96 110 110 116 130 130 130

0%

57%

Argus Potash Potash standard MOP (bulk fob Jordan) 233 232 234 238 258 280 334 451 513 562 620 645

4%

177%

Argus Potash Potash granular MOP (bulk fob Baltic) 226 230 227 232 264 284 334 444 513 560 592 641

8%

184%

Argus Potash Potash standard SOP (bulk fob northwest Europe [in €] 410 410 410 421 432 434 440 496 520 570 663 698

5%

70%

Argus NPK NPK 15-15-15 (fob Morocco) 254 266 309 332 339 354 397 428 448 448 526 618

17%

144%

Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

10 YEARS – 3 FERTILIZERS UREA/DAP/MOP argusmedia

Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

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Fertilizer Market Comments
FERTILIZER PRICE COMMENTS FOR SEPTEMBER 2021 argusmedia

NITROGEN

Algeria
Prices were assessed notionally at higher tracking netbacks from Europe and the Americas. AOA still had at least two cargoes to sell for December, but traders said the producer continued to show little interest in committing. AOA offered traders a second-half December cargo to be priced on formula.
Benin
Benin’s AIC has issued its annual fertilizer procurement tender seeking 66,300t of urea urea and various NPK products. The tender closes on 3 Nov.
Cameroon
Cameroon’s national confederation of cotton producers CNPC-C received three offers under its 11 October tender to buy urea and NPKs for the 2022-23 agriculture campaign. The offers were submitted by:
„.ETG Agri Inputs, a regional trader
„.Afcott, a distributor
„.Solevo, a distributor with blending operations in Africa
CNPC-C assessed the offers and expected to make awards in late October. Unconfirmed reports indicated that the lowest offer submitted for the 16,000t urea portion was €823/t cif Douala and €640/t cif Douala for the NPKs. The urea was for delivery by 20 January 2022
Egypt
Prices ran up through the first week of October in a flurry of small sales,
„.On day 1, Helwan sold 10,000t of granular urea at $700/t fob, then another 10,000t at $701/t fob, both for December shipment.
„.On day 2, Abu Qir sold 10,000t of granular at $715/t fob and 6,000t of prills at $700/t fob, both for November shipment.
„.On day 3, Kima sold 10,000t of granular at $720/t fob for second-half November shipment, then Mopco sold 10,000t at $735/t fob for November shipment.
„.On day 4, Helwan sold 10,000t at $800/t fob for December shipment.
„.On day 5, Mopco sold 10,000t at $820/t fob and 10,000t at $830/t fob, both for December shipment.
Egyptian producers were comfortable following earlier sales for the November and December delivery. Some suppliers withdrew offers, while others indicated $850/t fob for new business, up by $20/t fob on last done level. Liquidity had been thin in Egypt, with only one producer sale confirmed. Abu Qir sold 7,000t of granular urea on Tuesday at $845/t fob for November shipment. Meanwhile, a trader position was available at $835/t fob. Mopco sold 20,000t of granular urea at $850/t fob for December shipment. Alexfert sold 5,000t of granular urea at $900/t fob for end-December shipment, the highest price for Egyptian urea since 2008. Trader offers for November and December lots were close to $835/t fob. Abu Qir closed a tender on 27 October to sell 20,000t of prilled urea for November shipment. Offers were heard up to $770/t fob, but no awards could be confirmed by press time.
Ethiopia
EABC closed a tender on 25 October requesting 803,756t of granular urea for 2021-22 shipment.
Ethiopia’s EABC extended the closing date by four days for its annual fertilizer tender for the 2022 cropping season to 29 October. EABC sought to buy 803,756t of granular urea and 1.2mn t of NPS fertilizers for shipment during November to February
Ghana
Ghana’s food and agriculture ministry (MoFA) had issued a tender to buy fertilizer for the 2022 cropping season. The pre-qualification stage was closed on 27 October. MoFA sought 131,000t of urea, as well as 270,000t of NPKs and 8,500t of organic fertilizers. Notably, the urea tonnage sought was 22pc lower than last year.
Mali
Mali’s state-controlled cotton producer CMDT was understood to had delayed its fertilizer buy tender for a second time. But no new closing date had been announced. CMDT sought 110,000t of urea for the government’s 2021-22 cotton campaign under the tender, as well as 190,000t of 14-18-18+6S+1B/+2.5CaO and 17-17-17. Confirmation from CMDT was not available, but market participants indicated that political uncertainty could be behind the decision, as well as international fertilizer price increases.

PHOSPHATE

East Africa
There was import demand for up to 35,000t of DAP for October or November shipment, but importers were hesitant to commit to requirements amid recent price increases. Of the 35,000t, around 15,000t of demand were for Burundi, with the balance for Kenya and Tanzania. Tanzania and Burundi usually began their main season for phosphates demand in October, which lasts until January and February. Demand remained in Burundi and Tanzania, with price targets from the buy-side indicated around the $740-750/t cfr Mombasa/Dar Es Salaam range. One supplier denied offers at this level, indicating closer to $800/t cfr and above. Previous business had taken place around $705/t cfr. Ma’aden loaded a combination shipment of 10,000t of DAP for Tanzania and 15,000t of MAP for Mozambique. The DAP sale was reportedly concluded in the low $730s/t cfr.
Egypt
A small lot of Egyptian DAP was reportedly sold into Romania at $725/t fob equivalent, up from previous indications at $680/t fob. There were discussions for DAP cargoes for December loading. But there was limited to no availability for loading that month or the next. Price ideas continued to track those in Morocco.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s EABC finally issues annual fertilizer tender
The much-anticipated Ethiopian fertilizer tender had finally been issued by the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corporation (EABC), which was seeking over 2 mn t of urea and NPS fertilizers for the 2022 cropping season. The tender, which closed on 25 October, was requesting the following products:
„.803,756t of granular urea
„.853,090t of NPS+B
„.268,604t of NPS
„.81,086t of NPS+B+Zn
„.7,260t of NPS+Zn
The volume tendered for was up from the previous year. The volume of urea being sought was up by 13pc whereas the total volume for the NPS fertilizers had increased by 11pc. Its requirement for NPS and NPS+Zn was down by 4pc and 19pc, respectively. But its requirement for NPS+B and NPS+B+Zn had risen by 17pc and 11pc, respectively. The tender was typically announced in early August, but market participants had speculated that it had been delayed this year because of the sharp fertilizer price increases experienced through most of this year. The delay meant that deliveries was likely to have begun towards the end of the year or early in 2022. The 2019 tender closed around a similar time on 21 October, and the first NPS cargo was shipped on 30 December 2019, according to line-up data.
Morocco
OCP raised its DAP offers for European markets to $760/t fob on 5 October, before lifting levels to $770/t fob. MAP to Brazil was offered at similar netbacks. A sale of a small lot of DAP was concluded into Spain at a higher level, reflecting the $780s/t fob, as reported at presstime. But the quantity was too small to be included in the assessment. A trading firm offered Moroccan DAP under a purchase tender in India, but the price bids had not been opened. The unconfirmed offer was expected to net back to around $660-670/t fob, Argus calculates, setting the low end of the DAP range.
OCP had reportedly increased its DAP export offers to $785-790/t fob for European markets, from levels at $770/t fob. At press time it emerged that OCP had offered MAP to Australia at the equivalent of around $775-800/t fob, depending on freight rates and port discharge. The producer sold 10,000-15,000t of MAP earlier to Brazil, loading later in the month, reflecting around $760-770/t fob Jorf.
OCP had reportedly sold 50,000t of MAP 10-50 at around $765/t fob to Australia. Freight was estimated at around $125/t for 3-port discharge. The producer had held its DAP offers into Europe at $790/t fob. But fca prices in northern markets had yet to reach replacement cost levels. Freight for smaller vessels of 10,000t were indicated at around $55/t from Jorf to northern Europe, according to freight sources.
OCP sold 100,000t of DAP to India at around $745/t fob equivalent, marking an increase of nearly $100/t on previous business in India. The cargoes were scheduled to load in November. The producer also sold 50,000t of MAP 10-50 to Australia at $840/t fob, up by $75/t on sales. OCP was well-placed to cater to demands in Asia-Pacific with export restrictions ongoing in China. OCP further sold 15,000-20,000t of MAP to Brazil at a netback of $770-780/t fob, loading in November. The producer indicated DAP levels at the equivalent of $800-810/t fob into southern Europe, but this could not be confirmed on the buy side by press time. OCP reportedly had no spot availability to the end of the year. But this could not be confirmed directly with OCP.
South Africa
Fire at Richards Bay port
A fire necessitated a total shutdown of the dry bulk terminal at Richards Bay port on South Africa’s east coast. State-owned operator Transnet Port Terminals (TPT) had declared force majeure on all operations at the terminal after a second fire damaged its conveyor system. Fertilizer producer Foskor was reportedly unable to import sulfur because of fire damage to its conveyor route. But this was not confirmed directly with the supplier. The blaze at the dry bulk terminal broke out on conveyor HO1 on 13 October at around 19:00 local time and spread to other routes. While the fire was contained by around 01:30 local time, severe damage had been caused, which was unavoidable given its “enormity”, Transnet said.
Richards Bay port operations resume after fire
South Africa’s state-owned operator Transnet Port Terminals (TPT) had made significant progress in restoring operations at the Richards Bay dry bulk terminal on the east coast after a fire damaged its conveyor system. Five of seven conveyor belts had been fully restored and were back in operation, TPT said. For the remaining conveyor belts, the port had deployed manual handling to ensure continuity of operations. TPT declared force majeure on all operations at the terminal after the fire on 13 October. As a result, imports by fertilizer producer Foskor were halted. But TPT would not confirm which specific conveyor belts had been repaired and referred Argus’ questions to the firms who used the conveyor belts themselves. Investigations were under way into the cause of the incident, as well as another fire at Durban’s grain export terminal, which broke. No injuries were reported and both ports remained operational. DAP production had averaged 274,000 t/month in the first three quarters of this year, down by nearly a fifth on 336,000t/month a year earlier.
Producer Foskor was still experiencing interruptions of the electricity supply to its Richards Bay MAP facility following a fire at a substation late the previous month. Reparation works were rescheduled.
Tunisia
There were reports of a small lot of Tunisian DAP trading for a Mediterranean market at close to $700/t fob. GCT was reportedly sold out of spot tonnage and had none to offer to third parties until the start of the next year. But the producer was consuming 1,100 t/d of ammonia, implying that phosphate production was running at full capacity. The producer was reportedly running DAP output at around 50,000t that month. Domestic market and Libyan commitments were likely to total 15,000-20,000t that month. Remaining product was earmarked for Italy, Turkey, and France.

POTASH

South Africa
Granular MOP prices rose to $740-770/t cfr, up from $600-650/t cfr as new sales emerged for October or November loading. Producers had been working on lifting prices to reach parity with Brazil, and had been successful, mainly because buyers saw no end in sight to rising prices and needed MOP ahead of the next application period.

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Notes
Disclaimer
IFDC obtains data from Argus Media under licence, from which data IFDC conducts and publishes its own calculations set out in the tables and graphs on this website. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of its data or IFDC’s calculations, or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party’s reliance on Argus’ data or IFDC’s calculations, whether published on this page or otherwise, and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the data and/or calculations to the full extent permissible by law.