Latest FOB International Fertilizer Prices – updated at July 2017

Fertilizer Price Trends

INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICES FOR SELECTED FERTILIZERS

 

NUTRIENT FERTILIZER AUG-16 SEP-16 OCT-16 NOV-16 DEC-16 JAN-17 FEB-17 MAR-17 APR-17 MAY-17 JUN-17 JUL-17 1 MONTH 1 YEAR
N Urea (granular Arab Gulf) 187 187 198 226 229 256 252 212 192 177 178 175

-2%

-6%

N Urea (granular Indonesia/Malaysia) 205 201 205 224 231 260 271 237 215 208 209 193

-8%

-6%

N Ammonium Sulphate (China) 102 98 95 96 97 111 116 112 107 102 102 104

1%

1%

N Ammonia (Yuzhny) 214 185 168 78 229 274 305 317 316 305 251 199

-21%

-7%

P DAP (Russia Baltic/Black Sea) 341 333 325 311 311 319 347 378 358 341 336 334

-1%

-2%

P MAP (Morocco) 343 344 344 342 329 320 338 387 387 381 365 352

-4%

2%

P TSP (Tunisia) 278 278 278 278 278 278 280 283 283 283 283 283

0%

2%

K MOP (Israel) 225 227 224 223 223 223 224 228 232 238 242 244

1%

9%

K SOP (in € North-West Europe) 445 445 438 435 435 435 435 435 435 435 435 435

0%

-2%

NPK NPK 16-16-16 (Baltic/Black Sea) 290 270 261 253 248 245 255 271 268 262 251 260

4%

-10%



10 YEARS – 3 FERTILIZERS UREA/DAP/MOP

For more detailed information and data, visit www.argusmedia.com

Argus Media Ltd is the source of the data, on which IFDC bases the above calculations

Fertilizer Market Comments

FERTILIZER PRICE TREND FOR JULY 2017


NITROGEN

Awards totaling 445,000t in latest Indian tender helped to maintain a firm tone in the urea market during the last week of July. The actual award prices were $5-8/t lower than in the previous tender at the end of May, but the sales pushed Arabian Gulf prices back into the mid-$190s/t fob and allowed Iranian producers to sell close to $190/t fob. MMTC was unable to buy the 700,000t it targeted, suggesting another tender will be held during August to buy urea for September delivery. The Indian sales account for all the spot urea available from the AG for August, which will oblige Asian and Pacific Rim buyers to turn to Chinese and Indonesian urea to cover their needs during the month. Indonesian prices – at $210/t fob – are gradually becoming more competitive, while a 25,000t cargo of Chinese granular urea was sold in the last week of July at $207/t fob for prompt loading, the first sizeable cargo sold for some time. But there are large quantities of unsold granular urea sitting in warehouses in Indonesia, which should effectively cap the market in the East once it becomes competitive again, limiting future price escalation for Middle East urea. In the West, most of the urea available for August shipment has already been committed. As a result, buyers who sought August shipment had to pay higher prices than anticipated.
Turkish buyers found few options to Egyptian urea to cover their needs and several small sales took place, which kept Egyptian prices well above $200/t fob. Subsequent sales pushed Egyptian urea prices up to $215-217/t fob for September.
Ukrainian urea is largely absent from the market, while Iranian urea is committed to India. There are only limited quantities of urea available from Russia/Turkmenistan, due to buying in Bulgaria and markets served via the Danube.
Two cargoes of granular urea were sold from the Baltic at the end of July at $191-197/t fob, marking an increase of $6-8/t in prices. Supply of re-export material from the US Gulf shrunk and CF is asking over $200/t fob for its granular urea, making Baltic cargoes more attractive in the Americas. In Brazil, cfr levels for granular urea were up to $208-210/t at end of July and are expected to move higher in August. There is active demand and higher fob levels in the AG, which are to translate into higher cfr values in due course.

 
 

Egypt Sales for August loading took place in the last week of July mainly for Turkey, which urgently needed urea.
·         Alexfert sold 6,000t at $206/t fob for August shipment
·         Mopco sold 10,000t at $208/t fob for first half August shipment
·         OCI reported sales of 5,000t and 2 x 10,000t to buyers for Turkey, made on a cfr basis, with OCI claiming a netback of $208/t fob for the larger lot.
Abu Qir had one urea plant on turnaround till early-August and was not offering urea for export. Helwan was sold out for August. 
 

Algeria
Koch bought 30,000t of granular urea from AOA under the latter’s sales tender for 40,000t. The price was around $200-202/t fob. Koch loaded 25,000t for France in early-August, with freight estimated at $16/t for two port discharge. Sorfert said it was committed for August and had to refuse bids for urea from traders. It loaded about 70,000t of granular urea for export in July and had 3 x 6,000t vessels scheduled to load.

  Nigeria Indorama sold 30,000t of granular urea to a trader in the low-$190s/t fob for August shipment. Saftco was to load 5,500t in early-August for a West African market. Production at Indorama was affected by a 3-4 day strike at the plant in the third week of July.

West Africa Malian buyer DPA was reported to have purchased 25,000t of prilled urea from Phosagro for August shipment to Abidjan at a price reflecting $198/t fob Baltic. West African importers were out in the last week of the month seeking for cargoes for early shipment to the region.

.
 
 


PHOSPHATE

The global phosphates market diverged at the end of July, the east stabilized and the west continued to soften. Indian cfr prices were levelled at $348-352/t cfr following a Sabic sale and the offers into NFL’s tender closed on 25 July. Offers were valid until 28 July, but with prices unchanged from the previous tender, there was certainly merit in speculating that the buyers targeted lower prices. This tender has now been awarded following the issuance of another tender on 25 July. The higher offers into the latter tender resulted in it being scrapped and the first tender being awarded. There was little pressure on Chinese producers, as NFL issued another 90,000t DAP tender for September shipment and the suppliers were largely sold out for August. TataChem’s inquiry for another 50,000t of DAP for mid- August delivery also added further support to the eastern market.
The Chinese DAP price remained at at $335-338/t cfr for the last week of July, based on the NFL offers and a producer sale to Amber. Traders continued in their attempts to drive Chinese DAP prices down. Bids to producers reportedly dropped to $330/t fob China, but there was no indication that producers would sell at those levels. A return to the market by the Pakistani private importers looking for an August DAP cargo would support the Chinese market further.
With a healthy monsoon predicted in India and reports of strong demand for the Chinese domestic fall season, it appears that the eastern market sentiment was now stable. Traders appeared to have shied away from shorting the Indian market further in the most recent NFL tender. Instead, the prices offered were in line with the previous tender. But record domestic Indian DAP production in June and strong Chinese DAP exports, according to the latest June statistics, indicate that DAP prices may soften gradually over the coming months. The Saudi Arabian producers’ availability was tightening, following two Sabic sales in the last week of July. The marketer sold a 30,000t DAP cargo into India for August, while Kenyan importer ETG bought a DAP cargo on a formula basis. Ma’aden reported that it was sold out for August.

 
 
MOROCCO OCP was awarded the 22,000t Tanzanian DAP tender which concluded on 23 July. The net backs from the $348/t cfr Tanzania sale equate to around $315/t fob – a marked drop from its previous levels. This deal sets the lower end of the range while OCP’s previously reported August sales to Europe were responsible for the upper limit of $365/t fob.

OCP Morocco July commitments               (IN'000t)
Brazil                                      180  all products
Europe                                      150  DAP/MAP
West Africa                                 150 NPKs
East Africa                                 50 DAP
US                                 	     150  DAP/MAP
Argentina                                   100  DAP/MAP
Total                                       780
PRODUCTION                                  600 
BALANCE                                     -180 

Kenya ETG bought 25,000t of Sabic DAP for August priced on formula. Saudi Arabia continued to target this market over 2017, shipping 140,000t or 85pc of total imports over the first five months of this year.
 
 
Tanzania The TFRA closed a tender on 23 July to purchase 22,000t of bagged DAP. The product was for August loading and first-half September delivery to Dar es Salaam. OCP was awarded the tender at $348/t cfr. 
 
South Africa ETG bought 25,000t of Sabic DAP for August priced on formula. Saudi Arabia continued to target this market over 2017, shipping 140,000t or 85pc of total imports over the first five months of this year.
 

POTASH

Standard MOP prices narrowed in southeast Asia to $244-255/t cfr in the last week of July— from $240-260/t the previous week — as prices rose in Indonesia and Malaysia, and narrowed in Thailand and Vietnam. Thai and Vietnamese buyers reacted to the relatively low headline contract price for China of $230/t cfr, and now object to paying $260/t cfr for standard MOP. Granular MOP premiums to standard MOP were not as high as the $28-30/t heard in previous weeks, but nearer to $20-25/t at $270-275/t.
In Europe, granular MOP prices widened to €250-260/t cfr — from €255-260/t cfr — as Agrium was offering product from a vessel due to arrive in Europe in September at the equivalent of the low $250’s/t cfr. Granular MOP prices were steady in Brazil at the end of July, despite continued appetite for the product — which have been strong all year — prompting PotashCorp to upwardly revise its expectations for demand in Latin America, among other regions. PotashCorp raised its global supply expectations for this year to 62mn-65mn t, compared with its estimates of 60mn t last year.
A good monsoon in India, agronomic needs and higher acreage year on year would push demand in the country above 2016 levels, and offset the impact of lower subsidies, PotashCorp added.
Meanwhile, Uralkali settled the first Indian MOP contract of 2017, signing with IPL for undisclosed volumes at $240/t cfr with 180 days’ credit. Uralkali, Canpotex and ICL all settled annual Chinese MOP contracts in July, at $230/t cfr, with other producers expected to follow soon after.

 
 Egypt An Egyptian producer’s SOP offer prices were at $440/t fob Alexandria for standard product and $450/t fob Alexandria for granular, unchanged from the second quarter. The situation was similar to that in Europe, where third-quarter prices were also unchanged, at €430-440/t fob northwest Europe for standard SOP.   
 
Zimbabwe Agriculture and agri-processing business Tongaat Hulett closed a tender on 14 July for fertilizer products, including 5,451t of MOP. Deliveries were to be made to Tongaat Hulett within 21 days of the successful tenderer being notified. The company said it was open to offers on 18 July but did not reveal when it would announce awards.   
 
Elsewhere in Africa OCP sold 50,000t of 15-15-15 to Nigeria for August shipment at the stable price of $250-255/t cfr Lagos.
Malawi’s Farmers World reportedly bought 15,000t of Chinese 23-21-0+4S from Aries Fertilizers at around $265-275/t fob. In Ivory Coast, there were enquiries for 1,000-2,000t lots of 15-15-15+6S+1B from cotton companies because of larger areas being sown this year. Their additional requirements were likely to be supplied by local blenders.

Notes

Copyright Notice

All intellectual property rights in the data and other information published on this page are the exclusive property of Argus, and/or its licensors, and/or IFDC (where applicable) and may only be used under licence. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this page you agree that you will not copy, reproduce any part of its contents in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus. All rights reserved.

Trademark Notice

ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS LOGO, ARGUS Publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Ltd. Visit www.argusmedia.com/trademarks for more information.

Disclaimer

IFDC obtains data from Argus Media under licence, from which data IFDC conducts and publishes its own calculations set out in the tables and graphs on this website. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of its data or IFDC’s calculations, or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party’s reliance on Argus’ data or IFDC’s calculations, whether published on this page or otherwise, and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the data and/or calculations to the full extent permissible by law.